Does MWC Deserve Automatic BCS Bid?

I have heard the argument on many occasions that the Mountain West Conference winner should be awarded an automatic BCS birth. The argument that I hear most often is that the Big East has an automatic birth and the MWC is at least their equal.

While one can rationalize all day in their heads weather or not the MWC is just as deserving and the Big East, I thought of another way. I went to http://www.whatifsports.com/ and used their SimMatchup feature. It allows you to pit two teams against each other. You can even pick what year you want each team to be from, allowing you to have all time great squads face off. In addition to telling you the final score it also breaks down the stats. It's a really cool feature!

So what I did was pit the 2008 teams from the MWC and Big East against each other. I had each 1st place team play each other, each 2nd place team play each other and so on. I had to leave San Diego St. out of it because they finished in last place in the MWC which has nine teams vs the Big East's eight teams.

I had each series at a neutral field with no rain and 70 degree weather. I did five simulations for each matchup to increase accuracy. The matchups are below.


Utah vs Cincinnati
24 - 16
31 - 0
34 - 14
34 - 38
18 - 10
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28.2 - 15.6

In the series between each conference’s top team UTAH won four of five games. Overall the average points per game for UTAH were 28.2 while Cincinnati had a 15.6 average. The MWC clearly wins this one.


TCU vs Pittsburgh
66 - 0
29 - 12
42 - 10
34 - 10
29 - 3
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40.2 - 7

In the series between number two’s TCU easily won all five games. They outscored Pitt, on an average point’s per game basis, of 40.2 to 7. Even if you throw out the first 66-0 blowout TCU still averaged 33.75 pts per game to Pitts 8.75. This one was absolutely no contest. Another win for the MWC.


BYU vs West Virginia
17 - 37
24 - 36
24 - 44
17 - 41
35 - 30
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23.4 - 37.6

When the third place teams met it was another series that was one-sided. West Virginia took the first four games and BYU finally got a victory in the final contest. Even the one BYU win was by a slight margin; it was the only game not won by double digits. When averaged, West Virginia out scored BYU 37.6 to 23.4. This one goes to the Big East in a major way.


Air Force vs Rutgers
33 - 44
17 - 20
20 - 44
34 - 26
14 - 31
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23.6 - 33

Yet another lop-sided series. Rutgers won four out of the five meetings. In spite of having only one win, AF was fairly competitive. The average points per game were AF 23.6 to Rutgers 33. Regardless this is another victory for the Big East.


Colorado St. vs UCONN
27 - 48
29 - 51
12 - 73
17 - 70
13 - 73
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19.6 - 63

WOW! This one wasn’t even close. UCONN wins all five games with the closest victory by 21 points. I expected UCONN to win but not like this. They averaged 63 ppg while Colorado St. only averaged 19.6 ppg. The one is a win for the Big East in a VERY big way.


UNLV vs South Florida
14 - 34
24 - 38
7 - 31
7 - 40
7 - 77
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11.8 - 44

Yet another “no contest” meeting. The Bulls win all five meetings. In the last three games their defense took it to another level. The Bulls averaged 44 ppg while the Rebels only managed 11.8 ppg. The Big East now leads four series to two. Things are looking grim for the MWC.


New Mexico vs Louisville
24 - 21
48 - 27
29 - 17
44 - 21
45 - 27
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38 - 22.6

The MWC finally gets their third series here. I wasn’t sure how this one would turn out but I certainly didn’t expect either team to get a sweep like the Lobos did. It’s not exactly like the toughest boy in school getting his ass kicked by the prettiest girl in school but its somewhat of a shock. The Lobos averaged 38 ppg which was more than two TD’s better than Louisville’s 22.6. Now things are a little more interesting. Big East 4 – MWC 3.


Wyoming vs Syracuse
45 - 20
27 - 10
31 - 13
42 - 17
24 - 30
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33.8 - 18

Wyoming comes through for the MWC. They win all but one game and even it was close. The four games the Cowboys won were all blowouts. Wyoming averages 33.8 ppg to Syracuse’s 18 ppg. This MWC win ties things up at four series each.


So the question is, does this suggest that the MWC deserves an automatic BCS bid? I for one think they do. I thought so before I even did this simulation. If the MWC wanted to make a fuss over not having an automatic bid it would be a legitimate gripe. The Big East hasn’t done less to prove they deserve one than the MWC but they certainly haven’t done more to prove it either. I hope we see the day when the MWC is invited to the party.