I have heard the argument on many occasions that the Mountain West Conference winner should be awarded an automatic BCS birth. The argument that I hear most often is that the Big East has an automatic birth and the MWC is at least their equal.
While one can rationalize all day in their heads weather or not the MWC is just as deserving and the Big East, I thought of another way. I went to http://www.whatifsports.com/ and used their SimMatchup feature. It allows you to pit two teams against each other. You can even pick what year you want each team to be from, allowing you to have all time great squads face off. In addition to telling you the final score it also breaks down the stats. It's a really cool feature!
So what I did was pit the 2008 teams from the MWC and Big East against each other. I had each 1st place team play each other, each 2nd place team play each other and so on. I had to leave San Diego St. out of it because they finished in last place in the MWC which has nine teams vs the Big East's eight teams.
I had each series at a neutral field with no rain and 70 degree weather. I did five simulations for each matchup to increase accuracy. The matchups are below.
Utah vs Cincinnati
24 - 16
31 - 0
34 - 14
34 - 38
18 - 10
----------------------------
28.2 - 15.6
In the series between each conference’s top team UTAH won four of five games. Overall the average points per game for UTAH were 28.2 while Cincinnati had a 15.6 average. The MWC clearly wins this one.
TCU vs Pittsburgh
66 - 0
29 - 12
42 - 10
34 - 10
29 - 3
----------------------------
40.2 - 7
In the series between number two’s TCU easily won all five games. They outscored Pitt, on an average point’s per game basis, of 40.2 to 7. Even if you throw out the first 66-0 blowout TCU still averaged 33.75 pts per game to Pitts 8.75. This one was absolutely no contest. Another win for the MWC.
BYU vs West Virginia
17 - 37
24 - 36
24 - 44
17 - 41
35 - 30
----------------------------
23.4 - 37.6
When the third place teams met it was another series that was one-sided. West Virginia took the first four games and BYU finally got a victory in the final contest. Even the one BYU win was by a slight margin; it was the only game not won by double digits. When averaged, West Virginia out scored BYU 37.6 to 23.4. This one goes to the Big East in a major way.
Air Force vs Rutgers
33 - 44
17 - 20
20 - 44
34 - 26
14 - 31
------------------------------
23.6 - 33
Yet another lop-sided series. Rutgers won four out of the five meetings. In spite of having only one win, AF was fairly competitive. The average points per game were AF 23.6 to Rutgers 33. Regardless this is another victory for the Big East.
Colorado St. vs UCONN
27 - 48
29 - 51
12 - 73
17 - 70
13 - 73
------------------------------
19.6 - 63
WOW! This one wasn’t even close. UCONN wins all five games with the closest victory by 21 points. I expected UCONN to win but not like this. They averaged 63 ppg while Colorado St. only averaged 19.6 ppg. The one is a win for the Big East in a VERY big way.
UNLV vs South Florida
14 - 34
24 - 38
7 - 31
7 - 40
7 - 77
-----------------------------
11.8 - 44
Yet another “no contest” meeting. The Bulls win all five meetings. In the last three games their defense took it to another level. The Bulls averaged 44 ppg while the Rebels only managed 11.8 ppg. The Big East now leads four series to two. Things are looking grim for the MWC.
New Mexico vs Louisville
24 - 21
48 - 27
29 - 17
44 - 21
45 - 27
------------------------------
38 - 22.6
The MWC finally gets their third series here. I wasn’t sure how this one would turn out but I certainly didn’t expect either team to get a sweep like the Lobos did. It’s not exactly like the toughest boy in school getting his ass kicked by the prettiest girl in school but its somewhat of a shock. The Lobos averaged 38 ppg which was more than two TD’s better than Louisville’s 22.6. Now things are a little more interesting. Big East 4 – MWC 3.
Wyoming vs Syracuse
45 - 20
27 - 10
31 - 13
42 - 17
24 - 30
------------------------------
33.8 - 18
Wyoming comes through for the MWC. They win all but one game and even it was close. The four games the Cowboys won were all blowouts. Wyoming averages 33.8 ppg to Syracuse’s 18 ppg. This MWC win ties things up at four series each.
So the question is, does this suggest that the MWC deserves an automatic BCS bid? I for one think they do. I thought so before I even did this simulation. If the MWC wanted to make a fuss over not having an automatic bid it would be a legitimate gripe. The Big East hasn’t done less to prove they deserve one than the MWC but they certainly haven’t done more to prove it either. I hope we see the day when the MWC is invited to the party.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
WOULD BETTER DEFENSE MEAN BCS CHAMPIONSHIP FOR TEXAS TECH?
As a Texas Tech Alum I have had the pleasure of watching some of the most exciting offenses in the country during the Mike Leach era. I attended Texas Tech during a transitional period. My freshman and sophomore years Spike Dykes was our head coach. Then Mike Leach began his reign at Tech my junior year.
So needless to say, from the time that I started at Tech until the day I graduated, I saw Tech football (style wise) do a 180. Both coaches were effective but in very different ways.
Spike put together an overall record of 82-67-1 with a bowl record of 2-5. Leach has so far achieved an overall record of 76-39 with a bowl record of 5-4. Leach arguably does a better job of recruiting but Spike didn’t have the nice facilities that Texas Tech now offers. Spike relied on his defenses to win games while Leach relies on his offense.
Spike Dykes always put a dominating defense on the field. Spike consistently had the Tech D ranked among the nation’s best. I remember many games at Jones Stadium when our D was the only reason we were in games. On the other hand his offense was a little less fun to watch. Tech always had good receivers during his years but never relied on them too much. Spike ran a run first offense and used time of possession and ball control. Unfortunately for him, fans began to grow tired of the vanilla offense. I’m certain I’m not the only Tech fan from that era that remembers the crowds chanting “SCORE DEFENSE SCORE!” And you know what?...they did!
From day one Mike Leach has had the Texas Tech offense hitting on all cylinders. As an offensive coordinator, at Kentucky and then Oklahoma, Leach had begun making a name for himself well before arriving at Tech. He has transformed the offense from a running game to a high flying passing attack like no other. His offenses are always one of the nations most productive. He is consistently attracting top WR, QB & OL recruits and rightfully so. He has even begun recruiting defense extremely well. But in some regards he is the exact opposite of Spike Dykes. His defenses haven’t matched up against his offenses.
In comes a new D coordinator. For the last year and a half Ruffin McNeill took over as defensive coordinator. It has proven to be a smart move for the Red Raiders. The defense looked better than at any point in the Leach era last season. I truly believe that McNeill understands how to utilize his players to their fullest. I really feel that this change in defensive attitude is what will get Tech over the hump. Like you heard your high school coach say a thousand times “defense wins championships”. Even if you don’t fully buy into that statement there is some level of truth to it.
I also believe that the offense can actually help the defense improve. While I don’t think it would be wise to change the offensive strategy I do think it would be wise to instruct Taylor Potts and the other QB’s to use the play clock. I would like to see the Tech offense do this more, especially when the D is winded from the prior series. All it would require is telling the QB’s that in certain situations wait until there is less than 10 seconds on the play clock before snapping the ball. This would give the defense more time to rest before trotting back onto the field.
Another way the defense, and entire team for that matter, could improve is through strength and conditioning. Take TCU for example; they are extremely competitive year after year. They are especially tough on the defensive side of the ball. It is even more impressive when you consider that they don’t recruit nearly as well as Texas Tech. I have heard numerous people attribute their success on the field to their strength and conditioning program. According to Phil Steele roughly 75% of the roster can bench press at least 400 lbs.
That’s impressive and it made me wonder who their strength and conditioning coach is. His name is Don Sommer’s and he is in his ninth season with TCU. That makes at least nine seasons that he has been a big part of their success. This is someone that Texas Tech Athletic Director, Gerald Myers, needs to be speaking with before another BCS team snatches him away. Sommer’s and TCU’s linebacker coach, Tony Tademy, are two guys I would love to see in Lubbock in the not too distant future. If Tech has no interest in either of these men they at least need to find out what they do and mimic it.
I realize that these few suggestions are not enough to completely turn around the program. I'm not even dumb enough to think that if the Tech defense became a regular top 15 D that we would be destined for a BCS Championship. I can however say that if that were to happen we would be much more likely to be in that position. I would like to see us make the effort; and who knows, maybe the defense will again begin to score.
So needless to say, from the time that I started at Tech until the day I graduated, I saw Tech football (style wise) do a 180. Both coaches were effective but in very different ways.
Spike put together an overall record of 82-67-1 with a bowl record of 2-5. Leach has so far achieved an overall record of 76-39 with a bowl record of 5-4. Leach arguably does a better job of recruiting but Spike didn’t have the nice facilities that Texas Tech now offers. Spike relied on his defenses to win games while Leach relies on his offense.
Spike Dykes always put a dominating defense on the field. Spike consistently had the Tech D ranked among the nation’s best. I remember many games at Jones Stadium when our D was the only reason we were in games. On the other hand his offense was a little less fun to watch. Tech always had good receivers during his years but never relied on them too much. Spike ran a run first offense and used time of possession and ball control. Unfortunately for him, fans began to grow tired of the vanilla offense. I’m certain I’m not the only Tech fan from that era that remembers the crowds chanting “SCORE DEFENSE SCORE!” And you know what?...they did!
From day one Mike Leach has had the Texas Tech offense hitting on all cylinders. As an offensive coordinator, at Kentucky and then Oklahoma, Leach had begun making a name for himself well before arriving at Tech. He has transformed the offense from a running game to a high flying passing attack like no other. His offenses are always one of the nations most productive. He is consistently attracting top WR, QB & OL recruits and rightfully so. He has even begun recruiting defense extremely well. But in some regards he is the exact opposite of Spike Dykes. His defenses haven’t matched up against his offenses.
In comes a new D coordinator. For the last year and a half Ruffin McNeill took over as defensive coordinator. It has proven to be a smart move for the Red Raiders. The defense looked better than at any point in the Leach era last season. I truly believe that McNeill understands how to utilize his players to their fullest. I really feel that this change in defensive attitude is what will get Tech over the hump. Like you heard your high school coach say a thousand times “defense wins championships”. Even if you don’t fully buy into that statement there is some level of truth to it.
I also believe that the offense can actually help the defense improve. While I don’t think it would be wise to change the offensive strategy I do think it would be wise to instruct Taylor Potts and the other QB’s to use the play clock. I would like to see the Tech offense do this more, especially when the D is winded from the prior series. All it would require is telling the QB’s that in certain situations wait until there is less than 10 seconds on the play clock before snapping the ball. This would give the defense more time to rest before trotting back onto the field.
Another way the defense, and entire team for that matter, could improve is through strength and conditioning. Take TCU for example; they are extremely competitive year after year. They are especially tough on the defensive side of the ball. It is even more impressive when you consider that they don’t recruit nearly as well as Texas Tech. I have heard numerous people attribute their success on the field to their strength and conditioning program. According to Phil Steele roughly 75% of the roster can bench press at least 400 lbs.
That’s impressive and it made me wonder who their strength and conditioning coach is. His name is Don Sommer’s and he is in his ninth season with TCU. That makes at least nine seasons that he has been a big part of their success. This is someone that Texas Tech Athletic Director, Gerald Myers, needs to be speaking with before another BCS team snatches him away. Sommer’s and TCU’s linebacker coach, Tony Tademy, are two guys I would love to see in Lubbock in the not too distant future. If Tech has no interest in either of these men they at least need to find out what they do and mimic it.
I realize that these few suggestions are not enough to completely turn around the program. I'm not even dumb enough to think that if the Tech defense became a regular top 15 D that we would be destined for a BCS Championship. I can however say that if that were to happen we would be much more likely to be in that position. I would like to see us make the effort; and who knows, maybe the defense will again begin to score.
This Years BCS Buster?
Many people around here seem to think that if TCU makes it past Clemson that an undefeated season is likely. I tend to agree. This could be the year that TCU finally makes it to that elusive BCS bowl.
It should be interesting, when you consider that the offense may actually be the strength of this team. With that said, as long as Gary Patterson is the head coach expect the Frogs to have one of the nations top D's as well.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/881459.html
It should be interesting, when you consider that the offense may actually be the strength of this team. With that said, as long as Gary Patterson is the head coach expect the Frogs to have one of the nations top D's as well.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/881459.html
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